Is China winning the trade war against the US? Here’s what the data says

The yearslong trade war between China and kra42at the United States was amplified in February 2025 when President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on the Asian nation, Canada and Mexico on February 1. Since then, the two countries have been entangled in a chaotic relationship, with tit-for-tat tariffs at times reaching triple-digit levels.

But after Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea last Thursday to discuss trade and other issues, Trump agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods by 10% in exchange for promises that Beijing will crack down on the flow of fentanyl into the US. The effective tariff rate will still stand at around 47% for Chinese goods entering the US.

But how is China doing since Trump started his second term as president and tariffs have been levied worldwide? Here’s what the data says.

China levels off purchases of American commodities
Even before Trump’s second term, China’s exports to the US had been declining. That’s accelerated even more over the past few months.

In September, exports to the US totaled $34.3 billion, compared with $47 billion in the same month last year – down 27%.

But despite this steep decline in trade with the US, Chinese exports are up 6.1% this year, with September data showing an 8.3% increase compared with a year earlier, as exports to other areas surged.

China is not only diversifying its exports but is also importing more products from other countries as it looks to alternatives to American goods.

Soybeans and beef: What’s next in the China-US trade talks
Soybeans, a key commodity for both China and the US, were a big part of trade negotiations.

Although Chinese imports of American soybeans have been declining consistently in the past few months, for the first time in years, China didn’t import any soybeans from the US in September. Instead, China has turned to Brazil and Argentina, where soybean shipments to China continue to grow. In September, the Argentinian government temporarily suspended its soybean export tax, prompting the Chinese government to buy about 1.2 million metric tons from the South American country.